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2024 Governor · North Carolina

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 950 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.2% · Republican 38.7%

D+12.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.2 − 38.7 = 12.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 12.50 − (14.811) = -2.311
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.311| = 2.311

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88912, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv