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2024 President · Wisconsin

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 49.9%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 49.9 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (-0.859) = 0.159
  4. Absolute miss = |0.159| = 0.159

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88913, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv