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2024 Governor · North Carolina

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 1,410 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (14.811) = 0.189
  4. Absolute miss = |0.189| = 0.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88915, race ID 9502 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv