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2024 Senate · Arizona

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 1,329 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.406) = 5.594
  4. Absolute miss = |5.594| = 5.594

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88916, race ID 9505 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv