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2024 President · South Dakota

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 36.5% · Republican 62%

R+25.5

The certified result

Democrat 34.24% · Republican 63.43%

R+29.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.5 − 62 = -25.50
  2. Actual margin = 34.239 − 63.434 = -29.195
  3. Signed miss = -25.50 − (-29.195) = 3.695
  4. Absolute miss = |3.695| = 3.695

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88918, race ID 8883 (538 database).

population: lv