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2024 House · New York

McLaughlin · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · method not reported · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 54.50% · Republican 45.39%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.500 − 45.388 = 9.112
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (9.112) = -9.112
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.112| = 9.112

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88922, race ID 9819 (538 database).

population: lv