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2024 Governor · New Hampshire

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 915 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 49.5%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 53.61%

R+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 49.5 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 44.272 − 53.611 = -9.339
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-9.339) = 5.439
  4. Absolute miss = |5.439| = 5.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88933, race ID 9542 (538 database).

population: lv