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2024 President · Nevada

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.099) = 0.099
  4. Absolute miss = |0.099| = 0.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88940, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv