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2024 Senate · Nevada

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.643) = -1.643
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.643| = 1.643

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88940, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv