2024 President · Virginia
Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 1,004 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.767) = 0.234
- Absolute miss = |0.234| = 0.234
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88959, race ID 8895 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: lv