Skip to content

2024 Senate · Montana

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 50.6%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 45.50% · Republican 52.64%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 50.6 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 45.500 − 52.643 = -7.143
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-7.143) = 4.643
  4. Absolute miss = |4.643| = 4.643

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88963, race ID 9519 (538 database).

population: lv