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2024 President · Georgia

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,087 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 48.3%

R+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 48.3 = -2.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -2.40 − (-2.192) = -0.208
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.208| = 0.208

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88967, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv