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2024 President · Arizona

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,094 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48.1%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48.1 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-5.527) = 3.427
  4. Absolute miss = |3.427| = 3.427

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88968, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv