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2024 Senate · Arizona

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,094 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 45.9%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 45.9 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (2.406) = 1.394
  4. Absolute miss = |1.394| = 1.394

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88968, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv