2024 President · Michigan
Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 796 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 50%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.414) = 0.414
- Absolute miss = |0.414| = 0.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88969, race ID 8820 (538 database).
population: rv