2024 Senate · Wisconsin
Suffolk · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45.6% · Republican 44.2%
D+1.4
The certified result
Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45.6 − 44.2 = 1.40
- Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
- Signed miss = 1.40 − (0.849) = 0.551
- Absolute miss = |0.551| = 0.551
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88974, race ID 9534 (538 database).
population: lv