Skip to content

2024 Senate · Florida

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 55.2%

R+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 55.2 = -10.40
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -10.40 − (-12.778) = 2.378
  4. Absolute miss = |2.378| = 2.378

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88980, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv