2024 President · Texas
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 55%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 55 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-13.683) = 3.683
- Absolute miss = |3.683| = 3.683
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88981, race ID 8889 (538 database).
population: lv