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2024 Senate · New York

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59.6% · Republican 40.4%

D+19.2

The certified result

Democrat 58.81% · Republican 40.52%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59.6 − 40.4 = 19.20
  2. Actual margin = 58.815 − 40.524 = 18.291
  3. Signed miss = 19.20 − (18.291) = 0.909
  4. Absolute miss = |0.909| = 0.909

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88982, race ID 9524 (538 database).

population: lv