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2024 Senate · California

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61.2% · Republican 38.8%

D+22.4

The certified result

Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%

D+17.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61.2 − 38.8 = 22.40
  2. Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
  3. Signed miss = 22.40 − (17.746) = 4.655
  4. Absolute miss = |4.655| = 4.655

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88983, race ID 9506 (538 database).

population: lv