2024 President · Missouri
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 58%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.08% · Republican 58.49%
R+18.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 58 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 40.082 − 58.491 = -18.409
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-18.409) = 2.408
- Absolute miss = |2.408| = 2.408
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88984, race ID 8826 (538 database).
population: lv