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2024 Senate · Missouri

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.7% · Republican 56.3%

R+12.6

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 55.57%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.7 − 56.3 = -12.60
  2. Actual margin = 41.840 − 55.572 = -13.732
  3. Signed miss = -12.60 − (-13.732) = 1.132
  4. Absolute miss = |1.132| = 1.132

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88984, race ID 9518 (538 database).

population: lv