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2024 Governor · Missouri

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.4% · Republican 57.6%

R+15.2

The certified result

Democrat 38.72% · Republican 59.14%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.4 − 57.6 = -15.20
  2. Actual margin = 38.719 − 59.143 = -20.424
  3. Signed miss = -15.20 − (-20.424) = 5.225
  4. Absolute miss = |5.225| = 5.225

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88985, race ID 9540 (538 database).

population: lv