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2024 President · Florida

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 55.8%

R+11.6

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 55.8 = -11.60
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -11.60 − (-13.100) = 1.500
  4. Absolute miss = |1.500| = 1.500

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88986, race ID 8778 (538 database).

population: lv