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2024 President · New York

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 41%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.91% · Republican 43.31%

D+12.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 41 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.906 − 43.315 = 12.591
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (12.591) = 5.409
  4. Absolute miss = |5.409| = 5.409

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88987, race ID 8860 (538 database).

population: lv