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2024 President · California

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62.8% · Republican 37.2%

D+25.6

The certified result

Democrat 58.47% · Republican 38.33%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62.8 − 37.2 = 25.60
  2. Actual margin = 58.468 − 38.333 = 20.135
  3. Signed miss = 25.60 − (20.135) = 5.465
  4. Absolute miss = |5.465| = 5.465

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88988, race ID 8762 (538 database).

population: lv