2024 President · national
CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 78,247 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.472) = 6.472
- Absolute miss = |6.472| = 6.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88989, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: a
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes