2024 President · Michigan
Glengariff Group Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46.7% · Republican 43.7%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.7 − 43.7 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.414) = 4.414
- Absolute miss = |4.414| = 4.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88994, race ID 8820 (538 database).
population: lv