2024 Senate · Michigan
Glengariff Group Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46.2% · Republican 42.5%
D+3.7
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.2 − 42.5 = 3.70
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 3.70 − (0.341) = 3.359
- Absolute miss = |3.359| = 3.359
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88994, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv