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2024 President · Michigan

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 49.8%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 49.8 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (-1.414) = 0.914
  4. Absolute miss = |0.914| = 0.914

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89003, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv