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2024 Senate · Michigan

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45.6%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45.6 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (0.341) = 2.059
  4. Absolute miss = |2.059| = 2.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89003, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv