2024 President · North Carolina
Elon U. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 46%
even
The certified result
Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%
R+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.212) = 3.212
- Absolute miss = |3.212| = 3.212
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89005, race ID 8839 (538 database).
population: rv