2024 Governor · North Carolina
Elon U. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 31%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 31 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (14.811) = 6.189
- Absolute miss = |6.189| = 6.189
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89005, race ID 9502 (538 database).
population: rv