2024 House · California
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 521 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 25%
D+36.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.70% · Republican 39.30%
D+21.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 25 = 36.00
- Actual margin = 60.697 − 39.303 = 21.394
- Signed miss = 36.00 − (21.394) = 14.605
- Absolute miss = |14.605| = 14.605
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89006, race ID 9612 (538 database).
population: lv