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2024 President · Ohio

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 54.1%

R+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 54.1 = -8.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -8.20 − (-11.208) = 3.007
  4. Absolute miss = |3.007| = 3.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89011, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv