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2024 President · Virginia

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.1% · Republican 45.9%

D+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.1 − 45.9 = 8.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
  3. Signed miss = 8.20 − (5.767) = 2.434
  4. Absolute miss = |2.434| = 2.434

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89012, race ID 8895 (538 database).

population: lv