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2024 Senate · Virginia

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.7% · Republican 45.3%

D+9.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.7 − 45.3 = 9.40
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
  3. Signed miss = 9.40 − (8.923) = 0.477
  4. Absolute miss = |0.477| = 0.477

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89012, race ID 9504 (538 database).

population: lv