2024 President · Tennessee
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 38.3% · Republican 61.7%
R+23.4
The certified result
Democrat 34.47% · Republican 64.19%
R+29.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38.3 − 61.7 = -23.40
- Actual margin = 34.474 − 64.194 = -29.720
- Signed miss = -23.40 − (-29.720) = 6.320
- Absolute miss = |6.320| = 6.320
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89013, race ID 8886 (538 database).
population: lv