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2024 President · New Jersey

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56.9% · Republican 43.1%

D+13.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.9 − 43.1 = 13.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.974 − 46.065 = 5.909
  3. Signed miss = 13.80 − (5.909) = 7.890
  4. Absolute miss = |7.890| = 7.890

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89014, race ID 8851 (538 database).

population: lv