2024 President · Indiana
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42.3% · Republican 57.7%
R+15.4
The certified result
Democrat 39.62% · Republican 58.58%
R+19.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42.3 − 57.7 = -15.40
- Actual margin = 39.623 − 58.581 = -18.958
- Signed miss = -15.40 − (-18.958) = 3.558
- Absolute miss = |3.558| = 3.558
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89015, race ID 8797 (538 database).
population: lv