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2024 President · Michigan

Susquehanna · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 51.7% · Republican 46.6%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.7 − 46.6 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (-1.414) = 6.514
  4. Absolute miss = |6.514| = 6.514

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89017, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv