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2024 Senate · Tennessee

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.2% · Republican 60.8%

R+21.6

The certified result

Democrat 34.16% · Republican 63.80%

R+29.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.2 − 60.8 = -21.60
  2. Actual margin = 34.162 − 63.796 = -29.634
  3. Signed miss = -21.60 − (-29.634) = 8.034
  4. Absolute miss = |8.034| = 8.034

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89019, race ID 9529 (538 database).

population: lv