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2024 Senate · Indiana

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.6% · Republican 57.4%

R+14.8

The certified result

Democrat 38.77% · Republican 58.64%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.6 − 57.4 = -14.80
  2. Actual margin = 38.767 − 58.639 = -19.872
  3. Signed miss = -14.80 − (-19.872) = 5.072
  4. Absolute miss = |5.072| = 5.072

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89020, race ID 9511 (538 database).

population: lv