Skip to content

2024 Governor · Indiana

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.3% · Republican 55.7%

R+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 41.11% · Republican 54.38%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.3 − 55.7 = -11.40
  2. Actual margin = 41.107 − 54.384 = -13.277
  3. Signed miss = -11.40 − (-13.277) = 1.877
  4. Absolute miss = |1.877| = 1.877

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89020, race ID 9539 (538 database).

population: lv