2024 President · Nevada
CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 683 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%
R+3.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.099) = 2.099
- Absolute miss = |2.099| = 2.099
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89027, race ID 8857 (538 database).
population: lv