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2024 President · Nevada

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,082 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 47.6%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 47.6 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-3.099) = 3.299
  4. Absolute miss = |3.299| = 3.299

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89039, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv