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2024 President · Arizona

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 41.9% · Republican 49.7%

R+7.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.9 − 49.7 = -7.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -7.80 − (-5.527) = -2.273
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.273| = 2.273

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89040, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv