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2024 President · Montana

MSU - Billings · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 760 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.46% · Republican 58.39%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.460 − 58.389 = -19.929
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-19.929) = 1.930
  4. Absolute miss = |1.930| = 1.930

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89041, race ID 8833 (538 database).

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