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2024 Senate · Montana

MSU - Billings · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 760 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.50% · Republican 52.64%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.500 − 52.643 = -7.143
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-7.143) = 7.143
  4. Absolute miss = |7.143| = 7.143

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89041, race ID 9519 (538 database).

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