2024 Governor · Montana
MSU - Billings · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 760 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 50%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.62% · Republican 58.86%
R+20.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 50 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 38.619 − 58.859 = -20.240
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-20.240) = 1.240
- Absolute miss = |1.240| = 1.240
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89041, race ID 9541 (538 database).
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